Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
