Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
